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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to adopt a resolute position concerning Ukraine. After making threats of "severe repercussions" in August if Putin persisted blocking ceasefire talks, he finally imposed major penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

However, with his latest detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European participation, he has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", much of the proposal effectively weaken that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business past, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a damaged area of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although freezing in status the presently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unable to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that are a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, leaving Russian forces a open path to the capital should he later choose to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would make additional conflict easier for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the proposal sets no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people government as Nazis, the plan asserts: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal includes Russia pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's borders in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of captured areas in the region to the government – how should the international community believe Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

A separate parallel deal according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a capable national defense – the nation's primary defense against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, like the US administration, to react with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not